Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 11.346834 13.002661 14.781960 16.832047 19.124716 21.605398 24.488223
2025-10-26 8.691864 10.892723 13.439934 16.589415 20.361162 24.714416 30.099149
2025-11-02 7.425740 9.859719 12.813610 16.631501 21.401149 27.126337 34.477553
2025-11-09 6.483667 9.072926 12.352538 16.762005 22.479201 29.579572 38.993977
2025-11-16 5.693902 8.349124 11.841846 16.702629 23.210721 31.532480 42.870961
2025-11-23 5.015194 7.684348 11.321548 16.547391 23.753072 33.213840 46.424193
2025-11-30 4.539700 7.240748 11.041266 16.660618 24.614701 35.305313 50.557845
2025-12-07 4.238265 7.011151 11.027358 17.120180 25.947782 38.059995 55.670260
2025-12-14 3.791640 6.514073 10.576653 16.903898 26.290530 39.440700 58.925485
2025-12-21 3.280688 5.862608 9.836378 16.194508 25.856971 39.681719 60.559895
2025-12-28 3.101868 5.723880 9.861699 16.627583 27.109586 42.359904 65.740150
2026-01-04 2.912966 5.548364 9.810898 16.929903 28.166847 44.781502 70.624149
2026-01-11 2.647856 5.222817 9.501571 16.814538 28.593440 46.314785 74.309151
2026-01-18 2.398675 4.900368 9.171004 16.639121 28.909988 47.688588 77.804663
2026-01-25 2.211154 4.668809 8.971386 16.656982 29.519486 49.513546 82.024585
2026-02-01 2.061861 4.492917 8.852078 16.796525 30.323574 51.659718 86.801192
2026-02-08 1.895892 4.267659 8.626280 16.733843 30.782112 53.268946 90.786355
2026-02-15 1.733017 4.031268 8.360449 16.579502 31.070536 54.606203 94.375459
2026-02-22 1.621303 3.886699 8.251278 16.692501 31.810257 56.686773 99.201983
2026-03-01 1.562198 3.845699 8.333002 17.152981 33.165374 59.813405 105.804288
2026-03-08 1.427071 3.628142 8.058113 16.936283 33.318774 60.952282 109.201766
2026-03-15 1.250727 3.300162 7.539510 16.225729 32.552031 60.511670 109.971883
2026-03-22 1.208664 3.271304 7.618308 16.659520 33.865218 63.632163 116.750833